AEXI 2026 Market Finder Update
The major annual Export Market Finder (based on the TRADE-DSM methodology) update for 2026 that was released on 27 March 2026 covers the following elements:
Context of the 2026 update – increased global economic turbulence
The current 2026 update of Export Market Finder’s realistic export opportunity identification modelling assumptions has been complicated by recent geo-economic developments and turbulence. At the time of updating the model’s assumptions, a large share of global logistics as well as around 20% of global oil and gas exports have been impacted by the conflict unfolding in the Middle East. The initial impact of these developments has disrupted access to Middle Eastern markets. Maritime export opportunities have borne the brunt of the disruption, though it has also extended to the movement of air cargo and passenger transport. Most recently, after holding fire for nearly a month, Yemen’s Houthi militants have entered the widening US-Iran war, launching missiles toward Israel in a move that could open a dangerous new front and threaten global trade routes, especially once again the Suez Canal. [1] The implications (over and above increased risk of shipments not reaching the specific Middle Eastern markets impacted) is that global shipping routes have had to re-route around the Cape of Good Hope, adding between 30–50% in rates on affected lanes. This diversion entails increased fuel surcharges (15–25%) because the Cape route adds roughly 3,000 to 4,000 extra nautical miles compared to the Suez. Additionally, war-risk and conflict surcharges are being placed on some line items and there is a higher probability for port congestion fees due to African harbours not built to handle this volume of rerouted traffic. Depending on the duration and severity of further developments surrounding the war, these costs may become a longer-term feature of international trade from South-East Asia and Oceania to Europe and vice versa. Given the rapid changes involved in the conflict, not all current developments can be considered as part of the baseline estimates for the updated Export Market Finder results. The situation will be monitored and if the disruptions become more permanent our baseline assumptions may be adjusted later this year. The key elements of current estimates are based on the latest information available from the sources discussed below.
Figure 1: Middle East countries that could be directly affected by the current conflict in the Middle East based on Iran’s known weapons system. 
Source: CNN [2]
The Shahed-129 drone likely has capability to reach up to 1,700km, but it is dependent on a ground-based controller meaning the effective range could be limited to 200-400km.
Global international trade data
The international trade data that inform the Export Market Finder modelling and analysis outcomes are based on the “Base Analytique du Commerce International” (BACI) data set which is a reconciled version of UN COMTRADE merchandise trade database provided by CEPII (Centre d’Études Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales, 202601 version). According to CEPII, the BACI-reported export values exclude re-exports, unlike the usual international trade data such as UN Comtrade. Similar (but different in the detail) to the ITC, CEPII applies a data verification and adjustment process to assess the reliability of reported trade flows. One of the key advantages of basing the modelling on the BACI data set is that it offers the richness of the UN Comtrade database (in terms of number of countries, large period of time, disaggregated product level), but with the added advantage of significantly reducing the number of missing values due to the fact that the global flows are supplemented by considering partner or mirror reporting. Whilst it does not reflect ‘formally’ reported trade flows for all countries, the ‘synthetic’ set created does allow for a more up to date and realistic view of global trade flows and provides more comprehensive coverage and analysis capabilities.
Figure 2: Latest (2024) ‘synthetic’ balance global trade (CEPII BACI) compared to ‘as-reported’ ITC and SARS (for South Africa) 
Source: Trade Research Advisory, calculated from CEPII BACI 2026 release, ITC TradeMap (March 2026) and South African Revenue Services (SARS) (March 2026)
Global risk evaluation
The EMF approach includes a filter for global risk evaluation. This is based on the risk ratings available from Credendo[3] (9 March 2026). The latest update includes a down-grade of the countries directly involved in the war, including:
- Bahrain
- Israel
- Kuwait
- Oman
- Qatar
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates
As Iran was already evaluated as highest risk before the latest developments, there has been no change reported to its evaluation. Note that the risk filter is not applied by default and users need to explicitly activate Filter 1 manually or, if using pre-configured filters, choose options 2, 5 or 12 to select combinations where Filter 1 is included. These risk filters are accessible under the ‘advanced filters’ option in the online platform:
Figure 3: Finding the global risk ratings in EMF online platform
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Source: Author
Global logistics and costs
For African logistics, major routes are assumed as per the African Development Bank. Maritime routing costs are escalated with latest 2025 international maritime container lane price indices obtained from Container Trade Statistics (CTS) [4]. Although on average container rate prices declined during 2025, an uptick is observed at the beginning of 2026. Current global maritime shipping disruptions are most likely to have significant cost implications looking ahead into 2026, and the most important factor to consider in this regard will be the shifts in relative movements of maritime traffic on different lanes. The CTS indices as applied in the underlying EMF model are provided for 526 such individual maritime trading lanes. Figure 4: 2025 annual global container lane price and volume trends 
Source: Container Trade Statistics (March 2026), annotations by author
Figure 5: Finding the composite logistics cost index in EMF online platform [A] 
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Source: Author
Global tariffs
EMF modelling of import tariffs makes use of the latest estimated ad valorem equivalent rates available from the ITC MacMap platform. 2025 and 2026 have seen upheavals to the global trade tariff landscape due to changing US foreign policy and the consequent implementation of several major new free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the EU-Australia and EU-India FTAs. Major tariff shifts such as these have been applied in the EMF models for specific countries where data on the new tariffs has been made available.
Economic growth projections (IMF)
A key source of economic intelligence in terms of future potential economic growth is provided by the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO). The WEO is a survey of economic prospects and policies by the IMF staff, with detailed projections usually published twice a year and summarised updates in between. It presents analyses and projections of the world economy in the near and medium term, which are integral elements of the IMF’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries and of the global economic system. They consider issues affecting advanced, emerging and developing economies, and address topics of pressing current interest. Currently the latest available IMF forecast is the Oct 2025 revision. The IMF has indicated that an updated view that includes the most recent geoeconomic developments and the potential implications of oil supply interruptions is envisaged to be released officially during the 2026 Spring Meetings held from April 13 to 18, 2026. The EMF projections filter (Filter 1.3) will be updated subsequently towards end of April 2026. Figure 6: Finding the IMF World Economic Outlook growth projections in EMF online platform [A]
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Source: Author
Target market competitor context
In terms of the filter (F3.1) considering competitor context (the adjusted Herfindahl-Hirschman calculation), the Russia-Ukraine war still informs our assumption to ‘ignore’ market opportunities with high levels of concentration (if caused by either the Ukraine or Russia) that otherwise would have been marked as ‘not passing’ this filter. The rationale for this assumption is that given the ongoing conflict (going into its 5th year in 2026) that Russia and Ukraine exports that potentially compete with Australia’s exports will face operational challenges due to the ongoing conflict and therefore may be considered as opportunities (which in normal (non-war) circumstance would have been treated differently).
↑ [1] https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/…
↑ [2] https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/21/politics/iran-missiles-diego-garcia
↑ [4] https://containerstatistics.com/
