Due to geo-economic shifts we were asked to use the AEXI Market finder to identify and quantify short- and medium-term export potential across the semiconductor value chain, by product and by target market.

The strategic case …

The Netherlands is a global chokepoint in semiconductor manufacturing equipment through ASML, ASM International and BESI — but that near-monopoly leaves the ecosystem exposed to US–China decoupling. Export controls on semiconductors represent a geo-economic opportunity cost of €3.74 bn in lost China untapped potential (over and above the loss of actual exports as a result of the export restrictions). This report finds that alternative markets — Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam, United States, Malaysia, Mexico, Taiwan and India— can offset that loss in the short term, while a shift toward design-driven integrated circuits realistic can open around €25 bn of medium-term export diversification, which conservatively represents only 56% of total identified untapped potential.